Arkansas’s 2nd District Primary: Will French Hill Be Tested?

Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District has long been one of the state’s most closely watched political battlegrounds. It has remained solidly Republican since 2008, carrying a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+8. Yet the district’s political identity is shaped by the strong Democratic presence in Little Rock, making it the least Republican congressional district in a state with an all-Republican congressional delegation.

Covering most of the state capital, its suburbs, and surrounding communities, the district has gained added prominence through the presence of longtime incumbent French Hill, a staunch Republican conservative and ally of Donald Trump, which has made the seat one of the most visible and high-profile Republican strongholds in Arkansas.

While many assume Hill will continue to win comfortably given the district’s history, each election cycle still draws close scrutiny. Interest has steadily grown around whether any serious challenge could emerge, keeping the race firmly in the political spotlight.

French Hill’s Own District

The district has been represented in the U.S. House of Representatives by Republican French Hill since January 2015. Over time, his name has become so closely tied to the seat that, for many voters, no serious alternative has entered the political imagination.

Hill’s first victory in 2014 was a narrow one, coming after a previous cycle in which Tim Griffin helped shift the constituency toward the Republican Party. Hill won 51.86 percent of the vote, while his Democratic opponent received 43.6 percent, and Libertarian candidate Dobbie Standiford finished with 4.50 percent.

By 2016, Hill strengthened his position, winning 58 percent of the vote. The Democratic share fell to 36 percent, while the Libertarian candidate again remained in the 4 to 5 percent range. In 2018, his margin tightened, with Hill winning 52 percent and the Democratic candidate collecting 45 percent.

In 2020, Hill secured 55.37 percent of the vote, compared with 44 percent for the Democrat. His strongest performance came in 2022, when he faced Democratic candidate Quintessa Hathaway, who received 35 percent of the vote, while Libertarian Michael White collected 4.70 percent.

In the most recent election in 2024, Hill again posted a commanding result, winning 180,509 votes, or 58.9 percent of the 306,386 votes cast. Democratic candidate Marcus Jones received 41.1 percent, reinforcing Hill’s long standing dominance in the district.

A Crowded Primary Field

Despite Hill’s long-standing hold on the district and the perception that he is difficult to unseat, the March 3 primary is drawing new attention. Voters in Arkansas’s Second Congressional District will have multiple options this time.

Four candidates, two Democrats and two Republicans, are vying for the seat. In the Republican primary, incumbent French Hill faces challenger Chase McDowell, in a contest that will determine who advances one step closer to representing central Arkansas in Washington.

On the Democratic side, former gubernatorial candidate Chris Jones will face Zach Huffman, an elementary school mathematics teacher.

In every sense, French Hill enters the race with the upper hand, supported by experience, name recognition, backing from Republican leaders, and strong presence across conservative social media platforms. McDowell, described as a consultant with limited political experience, faces a steep challenge in attempting to overcome Hill’s advantage.

On the Democratic side, party organizers argue the party has been rebuilding at the state level. Jones, who has previous statewide campaign experience, has expressed confidence that changing political conditions, including opposition to Trump and Gov. Sanders could help increase Democratic turnout beyond the traditional 40 percent range, with strong support expected from Little Rock.

Cost of Living at the Center of the Campaign

For many Arkansas families, the numbers are not abstract. They are personal: the price of groceries, gas, and housing. All four candidates are shaping their campaigns around those pressures. French Hill says he hears those concerns everywhere he goes.

“We’re doing our part to undo four years of bad policy,” Hill said. He argues that federal spending following the pandemic fueled inflation and says families are still feeling the strain. “The cost of living is plaguing a lot of families from top to bottom. The prices at the grocery store, the prices at the pump, prices of housing.”

While Hill notes that grocery prices have moderated over the past year, he acknowledges that homeownership remains especially challenging for first time buyers. “I know what it’s like to save and be waiting for that low interest rate and waiting for that house,” Hill said. “There’s no silver bullet here, Daniela, you have a lot of factors that make this complicated.”

Hill points to legislation he calls the 21st Century Housing Act. “Our 21st Century Housing Act provides more capital and more ability for banks to make home loans and lowers the cost and provides incentives to lower the cost of constructing houses.”

He also highlights what he calls his Main Street Capital Access Bill. “It opens up lending, capital, and reduces cost for community banks, bringing down federal spending, focusing on inflation at the federal level, bringing down regulatory cost.”

On trade policy, Hill draws a distinction. “I don’t support across-the-board tariffs. They can have a price level increase at one moment,” Hill said. “Tariffs are a negotiating tool. Putting them at a high level and leaving them on can hurt families.”

He says relief for Arkansas farmers remains a priority. “We need those bills passed. We need that financial support for our farmers.”

On health care, Hill points to federal funding aimed at strengthening rural systems. “The federal government has given a $50 billion fund to states to extend rural care. Arkansas is going to get two hundred and seven or eight million dollars in rural care,” Hill said.

He also emphasized the role of community health centers. “We have 173 of them in Arkansas. They are a principal place for primary care, including prenatal and maternal health.”

He demands continuation for his visions. 

Challengers Outline Alternative Visions

Chase McDowell, the Republican challenger, framed his campaign around economic opportunity and property ownership.

“Bringing back jobs here, opening product lines, Arkansans have degrees, there’s just nowhere to go,” McDowell said. “I want you to own your own land. That’s part of the American Dream. It’s extremely difficult because we allowed big box businesses to come in and buy all of our single family homes.”

Chris Jones, the Democratic candidate, said lowering costs for families begins with policies that support workers while making Arkansas more competitive for employers.

“Arkansas is not getting its share of federal dollars. Our delegation is voting in a way that would close rural hospitals. They’re supporting things like tariffs with taxes that’s killing our farmers. I want to stop the bleeding,” Jones said. “We know when we support the Affordable Care Act. We know that provides healthcare to millions of people. That’s an example of what would make things immediately affordable, and SNAP benefits work now that when people have access to SNAP benefits and food on their table, it brings down poverty.”

McDowell also pointed to new technologies, including artificial intelligence, as potential drivers of economic growth.

“I’m not going to pump 7 million gallons of water per plant in the atmosphere a year. I don’t think it’s wise, and I care about our brothers and sisters in Georgia and in other states,” McDowell said. “Plus, when they can be submerged and cooled within itself when you use the same service in your car to keep these servers cool.”

Jones, however, argued that AI development must remain under close government oversight.

“We can have progress and innovation and technology, but do it in a way that directly benefits and helps the most people,” Jones said. “So when I think about data centers, I ask how that is going to help the community.”

The Road to Washington

As the March primary approaches, voters in Arkansas will soon determine which candidates advance and who will ultimately carry their priorities to Washington.

The primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff election set for March 31, 2026. French Hill is widely expected to emerge as the Republican nominee, while Chris Jones is expected to secure the Democratic nomination, based on campaign finance expectations, unless unforeseen political developments or major events reshape the race. The general election is set for November 3, 2026.