Can Democrats Rediscover Their Relevance in Arkansas in an Election Year

It is a compelling political story. Once a Democratic stronghold, a fortress and a reliable blue spot in the South, Arkansas has, in less than two decades, transformed into a state where Democrats struggle even to run their offices. The fall was dramatic. The party sank into a deep decline, facing financial struggles, a lack of direction, and no clear path forward, reaching a true low point.

Over time, however, Democrats have begun to climb back. They are no longer constrained by the financial instability that defined much of their recent past. With resources restored, the party has entered this year with new leadership and a renewed sense of purpose under Marcus Jones. Democrats see real reasons to engage voters again. Many Arkansans are grappling with rising living costs, challenges in farming and small business sectors, and political pressures shaped by both the Sanders administration and Donald Trump.

The road ahead remains challenging. Arkansas, like much of the country, is deeply polarized in a social media era that pushes voters toward the extremes. Few remain in the center, including many who once supported Democrats, making it difficult for the party to rebuild its voter base.

For now, the party’s immediate goal is clear. Democrats aim to defend the few strongholds they still hold, particularly in Little Rock, mobilize anti-Trump and anti-Sanders voters, and make inroads into competitive districts such as House District 70.

Fewer Candidates, but More Targeted Contests.

Arkansas Democrats had hoped to field a broad slate of candidates and capitalize on what seemed like a more favorable political climate. Instead, the opposite occurred. The party chose not to contest the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, auditor, or the open land commissioner seat. By contrast, in 2022, Democrats ran candidates in all of these races, even though they did not secure victories.

In the Arkansas House, Democrats are now contesting only 46 of the 100 seats, including just 25 held by Republicans. Two years ago, they ran in 64 races, the highest number in more than a decade, including 46 Republican-held seats. While Republicans have gained a commanding advantage in the state, the current approach by Democrats is understandable considering that two years ago they managed to flip only a single Republican seat, held by Representative Diana Gonzales Worthen of Springdale. The party appears to be prioritizing its resources and focusing on more targeted and winnable contests.

New Democratic Party Chair Marcus Jones has emphasized that the party is intentionally concentrating on fewer but more competitive races to make the most effective use of its resources.

No Big Dreams for Governor, but a Contest Nonetheless

Democrats know they are not going to defeat Governor Sarah Sanders, who is seeking a second term. She is in a strong position, closely aligned with Donald Trump and broadly supported by conservatives. She has overseen projects across many sectors, brought in funds and jobs, and built a solid base through Christian conservatism and her relationship with Israel. In a deep red state, that is more than enough.

Still, two Democrats are stepping up to give her competition. Senator Fred Love and Supha Xayprasith Mays will compete in the Democratic primary. Love has more experience but is not considered a threat to Sanders. For Democrats, however, it is important to run a candidate, prevent a walkover and consolidate votes from their base. Any additional votes they can gather will be a boost, and they will try their best to increase their numbers.

Can Democrats Send a Senator to Washington?

Arkansas currently has no senators from the state. Democrats are hoping to change that with Hallie Shoffner, who first gained attention last March at a town hall in Little Rock. There, she shared the story of losing a farm near Newport that had been in her family for six generations. That personal experience forms the centerpiece of her campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, the third highest-ranking Republican in the Senate. While the race will be challenging for Shoffner, she aims to represent farmers and rural communities who value resilience and hard work.

Shoffner is appealing to rural voters affected by the farm crisis, a group that has historically been resistant to Democratic candidates. The difficulties facing Arkansas agriculture have been worsened by Trump’s tariffs, which Cotton has not opposed, providing Shoffner with a potential opening.

Running statewide against a well-entrenched incumbent is costly. Shoffner has raised a respectable $660,000 so far, but she has yet to secure the outside support likely needed to overcome Cotton’s incumbency and substantial campaign resources. She will face Ethan Dunbar in the Democratic primary.

A Crowded Field for the U.S. House

Several Democrats have entered races for the U.S. House, although all four districts are currently held by Republicans. In the competitive Second District, which includes the Democratic-leaning city of Little Rock, Congressman French Hill is likely to face Chris Jones, the pastor and rocket scientist who gained statewide attention during his energetic but ultimately unsuccessful run against Senator Sanders in 2022. Jones has chosen not to pursue a rematch with Sanders, giving him a more winnable, though still challenging, path against Hill. Before reaching the general election, Jones must first overcome a primary challenge from Zack Huffman, a teacher from Little Rock.

In District 1, Terri Green will challenge Republican Rick Crawford. In District 3, Robb Ryerse will run against Republican Steve Womack. District 4 features a Democratic primary between James Russ Russell and Steven Odell, both aiming to face Republican Bruce Westerman in the general election.

A Democratic victory in the Second District would signal a meaningful revival for the party. In the other districts, even a modest increase in vote share would be considered a positive sign for Arkansas Democrats.

Special Elections: HD 70 Offers a Real Opportunity

Two special elections are scheduled early next year for the Arkansas Legislature. The first is for Senate District 26, a district mired in controversy over a proposed prison site and held by Republicans. Democrats are not contesting this seat. Despite public backlash over the prison issue and Governor Sanders’ decision to delay a vote, the Democratic Party did not see an opportunity to compete there.

The second race, however, presents a much more realistic opening and a reason for Democrats to be hopeful. The House District 70 seat, vacated by Carlton Wing in September, is considered the biggest Democratic opportunity of the year. Democrat Alex Holladay narrowly lost the seat in the previous election by just 286 votes. He will run again in the primary, where he faces Cordelia Smith Johnson. A victory in this race would provide a significant boost for Democrats, strengthening their remaining base and offering momentum in efforts to reclaim influence in the state legislature.

Restoring Credibility and Confidence

Considering what Arkansas once was for Democrats, the low number of contested seats may seem disappointing. However, given the party’s decline over the past decade, the strategy to focus on targeted and winnable races is sensible.

The party’s relevance depends on presenting itself as a credible alternative, one that voters can trust and that can challenge current leadership by offering better solutions. Democrats still face significant work to build this presence and connect with the electorate.

Strong performances in key contests can generate confidence and momentum. Victories in competitive districts such as House District 70 or potentially the Second Congressional District would serve as important benchmarks, providing tangible gains while signaling a meaningful comeback.